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2010-12-16
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: San Diego -9.5 & 44.5
Two California teams clinging to playoff hopes meet in a must-win situation for both teams on Thursday night. San Francisco is 5-8 and trails division leaders St. Louis and Seattle by one game. San Diego’s win over Kansas City last week put the 7-6 Chargers a game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West standings. Both teams have major injury problems. In addition to RB Frank Gore on IR (hip), the 49ers’ top two linebackers, Patrick Willis and Takeo Spikes, are both suffering hand injuries and are both listed as questionable.
San Diego has a slew of offensive injuries. WR Patrick Crayton (wrist) is out, TE Antonio Gates (feet) is doubtful and WR Malcom Floyd (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game. The good news is that WRs Vincent Jackson (calf) and Legedu Naanee (hamstring) will both play against San Francisco.
The 49ers are playing much better football recently, winning five of eight games after starting the season 0-5. Alex Smith will start at quarterback again for San Francisco after completing 17-of-27 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 40-21 win over Seattle. Smith, who missed the previous five games with a shoulder injury, is tasked with moving the football against the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL. San Diego is only allowing 173 passing YPG with only one game of surrendering 300 passing yards.
Despite Gore’s injury, San Francisco has rushed the ball well in its past three games with 453 yards on 4.7 yards per carry. Brian Westbrook has 190 rushing yards in the three games and also caught six passes for 87 yards and a touchdown against Seattle last week. Rookie RB Anthony Dixon has also thrived in his increased role, gaining 147 yards on 37 carries (4.0 YPC) since Gore got hurt. TE Vernon Davis is now healthy and a much bigger factor in the offense with Alex Smith throwing him the football. Davis has nine catches for 196 yards and two touchdowns in his past two games.
The Chargers are also hot, winning five of their past six games (SU and ATS). After rushing for just 21 yards in a loss to Oakland, San Diego ripped off 207 rushing yards in the win over Kansas City, while holding the NFL’s top rushing offense to 48 yards on 17 carries. Mike Tolbert (16 rush, 66 yds, TD) and Ryan Mathews (16 rush, 65 yds, TD) had nearly identical numbers against KC, while Darren Sproles ran for 53 yards on just six carries. San Diego could have more success this week if Willis and Spikes are sidelined for San Francisco.
75% of action at Sportsbook.com is behind the home team Chargers against the spread.
The running game will be key if Gates and Floyd, the team’s top two receivers, are limited on Thursday. The duo has combined for 1,442 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns this year. Despite all the injuries in the passing game this season, San Diego still ranks second in the league in passing offense. QB Philip Rivers has thrown for 298 YPG with 26 TD and 11 INT and should have success against the 49ers’ 20th-ranked pass defense giving up 227 YPG. The Chargers have only won the turnover battle three times all season and have a minus-7 turnover ratio for the year.
Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN DIEGO) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. (24-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units.)
Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. (25-6 since 1983.) (80.6%, +18.4 units.)
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NFL: Top 3 AFC Teams Preview
2010-05-24
The AFC will feature a great deal of powerhouses this season. From Indy and Pittsburgh to New England, the division showcases teams that have ruled the last decade. I only have room for three on this list, however. Here is how I see things shaking up; all you NFL betting folks pay attention:
- The New England Patriots: The team that has won more Super Bowls than anyone one in the past decade comes in at number one on my list. The Pats have a healthy Tom Brady, an older but still effective receiving core, and a few key draft picks to bolster the Achilles’ heel of last season the defense. With all that said, the Pats are not getting any younger. I believe, however, the Hoodie will steer this ship one more time to an AFC Championship, and so do most of the NFL betting crowd.
- The Indianapolis Colts: The favorite in the minds of most people in the sporting world, the Colts come in at number two on my list. Yes, they still have Peyton Manning and the rest of the crowd, but they have only made it to the top of the mountain once with this crew. All the stars aligned last year for the Colts to slide into the Super Bowl. They were able to dodge both of their biggest pains in the rear in San Diego and New England. Chances are that will not happen this year, and we will see the Colts bounced from the playoffs.
- The Baltimore Ravens: Matt Ryan might have gotten all the hype coming out of the draft a couple of years ago, but Joe Flacco has all the playoff wins. Yes, the defense is growing more than a little long in the tooth, but I believe they still have enough gas left in the tank to get the job done. And with the acquisition of Anquan Boldin, Joe Flacco has to be grinning from ear to ear these days. Look for Baltimore to one of the biggest bullies in the AFC.
This is how I believe things will shake up in the AFC. With injuries and the general craziness of the NFL, though, all of these teams could be turned upside down before the opening kickoff of the preseason. We will just have to wait and see how an always strong AFC plays out this year. Who are you betting on in the AFC this season? When it comes to NFL betting there is no site better than www.sportsbook.com where everybody bets.
NFL: Late Afternoon Kickoffs (4:05 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2008-11-28
Three games grace the NFL late afternoon betting board, highlighted by Pittsburgh traveling to Foxboro to take on the Patriots in a battle of AFC playoff contenders. Elsewhere, the Chargers hope to keep their feint postseason hopes alive when they welcome Atlanta to town. The Falcons find themselves in the thick of things in the NFC. A little up the coast, Oakland hosts Kansas City in a game with little meaning other than the 3-point line accompanying it. See who your colleagues are siding with in these games by visiting the BETTING TRENDS page.
(405) ATLANTA at (406) SAN DIEGO
Atlanta and San Diego are in positions where they can’t afford to lose too many more games to keep their playoff hopes in place. Of course, after last week’s win over Carolina, Atlanta’s room for error is much greater. Nothing shy of a second ever franchise win over the Falcons will do for San Diego. The Chargers are just 1-6 all-time vs. Atlanta, having not won in the head-to-head series since ’88. Other trends wouldn’t indicate the Chargers have the edge here though. They are 10-2 ATS in their L12 vs. good rushing teams averaging 130 RYPG or more, while Atlanta has gone just 9-25 in the second half of the season vs. good offenses scoring 24 PPG or more. However, the Falcons are on an 11-5 ATS run vs. the AFC, including two wins in ’08.
StatFox Power Line says: San Diego by 5
(407) PITTSBURGH at (408) NEW ENGLAND
Pittsburgh visited New England in a high profile game a year ago and in the face of guarantees by Steelers’ players, the Patriots prevailed 34-13. The extra motivation helped propel New England to its only ATS win in its final nine games of the ’07 season. Well, in ’08, the stakes are again high for the teams’ week 13 matchup, with 8-3 Pittsburgh leading the AFC North and the 7-4 Pats in the thick of the playoff race as well. HC Bill Belichick’s team has owned the Steelers of late, going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in the L8 head-to-head meeting. New England also owns the matchup edge, with a 22-9 ATS home record vs. good defenses giving up 17 PPG or less. HC Mike Tomlin’s team has played very well on the road though, going 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS while allowing just 3.9 YPP.
StatFox Game Estimator says: New England 22, Pittsburgh 20
(409) KANSAS CITY at (410) OAKLAND
In the span of the last 20 weeks of NFL regular season action, the Chiefs and Raiders have won just six games combined. As crazy as it sounds, Oakland owns five of those victories, the latest coming in a huge upset last week in Denver. Kansas City has been that bad, losing 19 of its L20 games, a franchise mark for futility. HC Herm Edwards’ team may have hit rock bottom in losing to Buffalo, allowing 51 points. Over their L7 games, the Chiefs are allowing 32.4 PPG. However, they are 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in Oakland. Even though the Raiders (-3) are favored for the first time in 20 games, it remains to be seen whether they can take advantage. They are on a 0-6 ATS run as home chalk, and own a 2-10 ATS record vs. bad defenses yielding 5.65 yards per play or more.
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating says: Oakland by 4